NBA Season Insights from Betting Over/Under Win Totals

NBA training camps are set to begin on October 1, and soon we’ll see many optimistic articles about teams’ prospects for the new season.

Sorting Hype from Reality:

How can we tell what’s real and what’s just hype? Luckily, there’s a way to get a clearer picture: over/under win totals from sportsbooks. These betting sites use advanced models and insider info to cut through the noise.

Check out DraftKings’ projected win totals here. Let’s dive into what this season might look like:

Parity in the Western Conference:

DraftKings predicts that 20 of the 30 NBA teams will have more than 40 wins, with 12 of those teams in the Western Conference. Historically, it’s almost impossible for so many teams in one conference to hit that mark. Last season was the only time when even 11 teams managed it in the West.

So, expect some of these teams to fall short of their projections while others exceed them due to unforeseen circumstances like injuries or tough schedules. Teams relying heavily on older or injury-prone players (like Bucks, Suns, Heat, Lakers, Warriors, Clippers) might struggle more than expected.

On the flip side, bet on teams with depth and strong defenses. They usually perform consistently well throughout the season. These squads don’t often rest players unnecessarily or take games lightly.

Best bets: Go over on Thunder (56.5) and Knicks (52.5) because of their talent depth and defensive prowess.

The Tanking Factor:

Vegas seems to overlook potential tanking strategies for top draft picks like Cooper Flagg later in the season. As of now, Nets (19.5), Wizards (21.5), Blazers (22.5), and Pistons (25.5) have low projected win totals.

Last year saw six teams winning fewer than 25 games with Pistons at rock bottom with just 14 wins! Brooklyn traded its best player Mikal Bridges away too—expect them to struggle this season.

Duke’s Flagg is a generational talent along with other prospects like Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper from Rutgers who could be franchise changers.

Best bets: Bet under on Nets, Wizards, Blazers & Pistons

Victor Wembanyama’s Leap:

DraftKings projects Spurs’ wins at 36.5 after winning just 22 last season—a huge leap! Adding Chris Paul at age 39 doesn’t guarantee such improvement even if Victor Wembanyama is exceptional.

Historically speaking prodigies like LeBron James saw modest improvements by seven wins during his second year while Kevin Durant’s team improved by only three wins in his sophomore year despite their immense talents!

Most big jumps happen during third seasons for such stars rather than second ones!

Best bet: Smash under!

Bonus Bet – “The Curse of Russell Westbrook”:

Hit under on Denver Nuggets’ total wins (51.5). Since leaving Oklahoma City alongside KD back in ’15-’16 Westbrook hasn’t been part of any team achieving more than fifty-one victories!