Pacers Had 0.3% Win Probability Against Knicks When Trailing By 14 Points

The Indiana Pacers pulled off what might be the most stunning comeback in NBA playoff history Wednesday night, erasing a 14-point deficit in the final minutes to shock the New York Knicks 138-135 in overtime to open the Eastern Conference finals.

Down 14 with less than three minutes left in regulation, the Pacers’ chances of winning had shrunk to just 0.3%, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

That’s right – the Knicks had a 99.7% chance of victory while cruising with that double-digit lead.

Teams trailing by nine or more points in the final minute of playoff games were 0-1,414 since 1998 before last night. The all-time record is now 1-1,414.

Let that sink in for a moment.

With the clock winding down and the Pacers still down by two points, Tyrese Haliburton took a desperate shot near the three-point line. The ball hit the back of the rim, bounced high in the air, and somehow dropped through the net to force overtime.

What happened next became an instant classic.

Thinking he’d just hit a game-winning three, Haliburton ran toward the sideline and made the infamous “choke” gesture to the stunned Madison Square Garden crowd. Replays later showed it was actually a two-pointer that tied the game.

“I felt like it got stuck up there though. But it felt good when it left my hand,” said Haliburton, who finished with 31 points, 11 assists and 4 rebounds in 42 minutes.

The choke sign wasn’t random – it was a callback to Pacers legend Reggie Miller’s famous taunt to Spike Lee during another miraculous comeback against the Knicks in the 1994 playoffs.

“I wasn’t like plotting on it or anything,” Haliburton admitted. “Everybody wanted me to do it last year at some point, but it’s got to feel right. It felt right at the time – well, if I would’ve known it was a 2, I would not have done it. So I think I might’ve wasted it.”

Aaron Nesmith was equally spectacular, pouring in 30 points while shooting an incredible 8-for-9 from beyond the arc.

Six of those threes came in the fourth quarter alone, tying an NBA playoff record for a single quarter.

Together, Haliburton and Nesmith became just the third Pacers duo ever to each score 30+ in a playoff game.

This wasn’t even the Pacers’ first miracle this postseason. They’ve now made three comebacks when trailing by three possessions with less than a minute left. Only one other team in NBA history – the 2013-14 Oklahoma City Thunder – had ever pulled that off before.

How rare was this comeback? According to Basketball Reference, teams leading by at least 14 points in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter had been a perfect 994-0 since detailed play-by-play tracking began in 1997-98.

Until now.

The shell-shocked Knicks will try to regroup when they host Game 2 on Friday night.

James Shotwell
James Shotwell
James, a dedicated writer for BasketballHour, holds a degree in English and Creative Writing. A genuine sports enthusiast and skilled betting advice provider, he writes engaging articles and valuable winning strategies for sports.

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